Cubs v. Brewers Game Three Preview

July 30, 2008

The “homers” says Cubs sweep. The analysts say the Brewers should win. The Brewers are pretending it doesn’t matter. The Cubs are just focusing on what is going right. The statistics, which is the only thing that really matters tell the tale. The Cubs, no matter what happens for the rest of the series will leave Wisconsin in first place in the NL Central. That’s enough hyperbole for one post.

The big news is that Erin Andrews is covering the game tonight for ESPN. Actually, the big news is that ESPN isn’t airing another Yankees or Red Sox game.

Ryan Dempster is facing Manny Parra tonight.

Ryan Dempster vs. Batters, for 2008, Min. 0 PA’s, Sorted by PA DESC, Then by Name, vs. players for MIL
PI Click on the player name for a list of plate appearances between these players.
                    **PA**AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss +-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+
 Ryan Braun            6     6   2  1  0  0   3   0   1  .333  .333  .500  .833   0   0   0   0   0
 Ray Durham            6     6   4  1  0  0   2   0   0  .667  .667  .833 1.500   0   0   0   0   0
 Prince Fielder        6     5   1  0  0  0   1   0   1  .200  .167  .200  .367   0   1   0   0   0
 Bill Hall             6     6   0  0  0  0   0   0   2  .000  .000  .000  .000   0   0   0   0   1
 Rickie Weeks          6     4   2  0  0  0   0   2   0  .500  .667  .500 1.167   0   0   0   0   0
 J.J. Hardy            5     4   0  0  0  0   0   1   0  .000  .200  .000  .200   0   0   0   0   0
 Corey Hart            5     3   0  0  0  0   0   2   0  .000  .400  .000  .400   0   0   0   0   0
 Jason Kendall         4     3   1  0  0  0   0   1   0  .333  .500  .333  .833   0   0   0   0   0
 Mike Cameron          3     2   0  0  0  0   0   1   0  .000  .333  .000  .333   0   0   0   0   0
 David Bush            2     2   0  0  0  0   0   0   0  .000  .000  .000  .000   0   0   0   0   0
 Jeff Suppan           1     1   0  0  0  0   0   0   0  .000  .000  .000  .000   0   0   0   0   0
+-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+

Has not faced: Russell Branyan, Craig Counsell, Gabe Kapler, and Mike Rivera & Has not faced pitchers: Eric Gagne, Seth McClung, Guillermo Mota, Manny Parra, David Riske, C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Brian Shouse, Salomon Torres, and Carlos Villanueva

Parra has not faced the Cubs this year so we are left to put up his career numbers…

Manny Parra vs. Batters, for Career, Min. 0 PA’s, Sorted by PA DESC, Then by Name, vs. players for CHC
PI Click on the player name for a list of plate appearances between these players.
                    **PA**AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss +-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+
 Mark DeRosa           2     2   1  0  0  0   2   0   0  .500  .500  .500 1.000   0   0   0   0   0
 Derrek Lee            2     2   0  0  0  0   0   0   0  .000  .000  .000  .000   0   0   0   0   0
 Aramis Ramirez        2     0   0  0  0  0   0   2   0       1.000               0   0   0   0   0
 Alfonso Soriano       2     2   0  0  0  0   0   0   2  .000  .000  .000  .000   0   0   0   0   0
 Ryan Theriot          2     2   0  0  0  0   0   0   0  .000  .000  .000  .000   0   0   0   0   0
 Jim Edmonds           1     1   0  0  0  0   0   0   0  .000  .000  .000  .000   0   0   0   0   0
 Ted Lilly             1     1   0  0  0  0   0   0   1  .000  .000  .000  .000   0   0   0   0   0
+-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+
 Total                12    10   1  0  0  0   2   2   3  .100  .250  .100  .350   0   0   0   0   0

Has not faced: Henry Blanco, Ronny Cedeno, Mike Fontenot, Kosuke Fukudome, Reed Johnson, Geovany Soto, and Daryle Ward & Has not faced pitchers: Neal Cotts, Ryan Dempster, Scott Eyre, Chad Gaudin, Rich Harden, Bobby Howry, Carlos Marmol, Jason Marquis, Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija, and Carlos Zambrano

As far as the analysis, It is a stretch to think that the Cubs are going to sweep the second best team in the NL, but when the Cubs started the year 0-2 v. the Brewers, it was Dempster who got the Cubs ship righted to begin the year. Also, Dempster has only one win on the road which was at Huston…do you bet on Dempster evening out his statistics and getting his road record closer to his home record, or do you bet the Brewers won’t get swept. It is such a 50 / 50 proposition that we are going to keep away form any sort of jinx and just enjoy watching the Cubs on national television.

Check back for the wrap up later.


Dempster Wins Away From Wrigley

July 20, 2008

I am not going to pretend like this is a relevant topic at 745p in the east. Most of you already know the following…

  • The Cubs Avoided a Sweep
  • Dempster got his first road win in two years
  • The Cubs Bats came back to life
  • Despite outscoring Houston in the series 11-6 the Cubs lost the Series 1-2
  • The Cubs have a three game set v. Arizona Starting tomorrow befor heading back home
  • Greg Norman did not close the deal
  • 100yi really needs to find a contributor or two

Do you want an excellent breakdown of the game since I was busy shooting 75 on the course today? Our friends (well we like them, we aren’t sure if they even know we exist) at Bleed Cubbie Blue have a complete recap of todays game that is far better than any network is giving. Click here to read the recap.

I will preview the D-Back series later tonight…

Is this what they mean when a reporter “mails it in?”


Lincecum Dominates as Cubs Lose 4-2

July 14, 2008

I was afraid of this. Very afraid. I hedged a little bit yesterday in making the game predictions and I should have gone with my head instead of my heart. Tim Lincecum is just that good.

On a wind swept day at Wrigley field, the Cubs had no answers for Lincecum who handed Ryan Dempster his first home defeat of the season. Spreading out six hits over eight innings while striking out nine, Lincecum completely dominated the Cubs potent lineup.

The Cubs only hope would have been to get into the Giants bullpen. Unfortunately, Lincecums pitch count enabled him to stay in the game long enough to not have to turn things over to the shaky setup crew of the Giants. You got the feeling that with the All Star Break here giving Lincecum an extended break, Giants Manager  Bruce Bochy was going to do everything he had to to get the fortunes of his club reversed. The Giants were in the middle of a six game slide and Bochy used some strategy to get his team a win. The formula was Lincecum early, and Lincecum Late. Turn it over to Wilson and hope. The Cubs almost capatilized scoring one run in the bottom of the ninth and getting the winning run to the plate…but Ryan Theroit grounded out to end the game.

Still the Cubs won the series 2-1 and finish the first half tied for the best record in baseball with the sneaky, quietly, west coast, no one talks about Los Angeles Angels. (The Angels Angels???)

Notes

Somewhere in the prediction for the game I thought the Cubs in a normal pre-break series would lose this game 3-2…maybe it was the Cubs looking ahead.

I also thought the Cubs would win 6-4…that was my gut feeling Cubs sweep, and more Dempster magic…Demp pitched great today, but a few tactical errors, and a non called error by Mark DeRosa…spoiled it for Demp’s perfect home record. But I never really believed he would go 16-0 at home.

So for the predictions….I somehow got the number of Giants runs with my gut (4) and the number of Cubs runs with my head (2)…Lincecum dominant? Check. Cubs only shot was relievers? Check.

I will be posting the Home Run Derby and the All Star Game so check back over the next few days…I am sure there will be a lot of Cubs news as Carlos Marmol was added to the roster today replacing Kerry Wood. Wood’s blister will need additional rest and time to heal. Marmol’s addition means a record tying EIGHT Cubs in the 2008 All Star Game.


Cubs v. Giants Game 3 Preview

July 13, 2008

Talk about a tough call.

I know this is a Cubs website, and as such I never want to predict anything other than a Cubs win. This is such a tough game to pick though. This game is going to come down to who gets the breaks.

Heres’s why.

These are Tim Lincecum’s numbers versus the Cubs…LIFETIME

Tim Lincecum vs. Batters, for Career, Min. 0 PA’s, Sorted by PA DESC, Then by Name, vs. players for CHC
PI Click on the player name for a list of plate appearances between these players.
                    **PA**  AB  H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss
+-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+
 Derrek Lee           10     9   3  1  0  0   2   1   2  .333  .400  .444  .844   0   0   0   0   0
 Ryan Theriot         10    10   2  1  0  0   0   0   0  .200  .200  .300  .500   0   0   0   0   1
 Mark DeRosa           9     7   2  1  0  0   2   1   2  .286  .375  .429  .804   1   0   0   0   0
 Jim Edmonds           9     7   1  0  0  0   0   1   2  .143  .333  .143  .476   0   0   0   1   0
 Aramis Ramirez        9     9   0  0  0  0   0   0   3  .000  .000  .000  .000   0   0   0   0   0
 Daryle Ward           4     2   0  0  0  0   0   2   2  .000  .500  .000  .500   0   0   0   0   0
 Mike Fontenot         3     3   0  0  0  0   0   0   2  .000  .000  .000  .000   0   0   0   0   0
 Kosuke Fukudome       3     3   1  0  0  0   0   0   1  .333  .333  .333  .666   0   0   0   0   0
 Reed Johnson          3     3   1  1  0  0   0   0   0  .333  .333  .667 1.000   0   0   0   0   0
 Geovany Soto          3     3   0  0  0  0   0   0   3  .000  .000  .000  .000   0   0   0   0   0
 Chad Gaudin           2     1   0  0  0  0   0   1   1  .000  .500  .000  .500   0   0   0   0   0
 Jason Marquis         2     2   0  0  0  0   0   0   2  .000  .000  .000  .000   0   0   0   0   0
+-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+
 Total                67    59  10  4  0  0   4   6  20  .169  .258  .237  .495   1   0   0   1   1

Has not faced: Henry Blanco and Ronny Cedeno & Has not faced pitchers: Neal Cotts, Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden, Kevin Hart, Bobby Howry, Jon Lieber, Ted Lilly, Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, Kerry Wood, and Carlos Zambrano

But here is the catch. Lincecum has never pitched at Wrigley Field Before!

Dempster has been down right filthy at home this year. Here are his home numbers…

SPLITS ERA W L Sv SvO GP GS CG IP H R ER HR BB SO BAA
Home (2008) 2.58 10 0 0 0 11 11 1 73.1 52 22 21 4 30 61 .198

10-0 at home and the Cubs have won all 11 of his starts at home as well (14-5 overall when Demp Starts)

Dempster has been the beneficiary of huge offensive support though. the Cubs are averaging 6.34 runs per game in his starts. Lincecum’s ERA is 2.66. Scary.

The Giants had been having no luck at the plate in the last 6-7 games until the 8th and 9th yesterday….did they figure some things out –  or was Marmol just that bad? I say Marmol was just that bad.

I am going to give the edge to the Cubs in this one, because they are riding such a high right now. They firmly believe that when Demp is pitching at home they are going to win….Demp believes this too…It’s all mental my friends. Also, Marmol won’t shouldn’t be available tomorrow…. Predictions go like this…Demp goes 7.1 innings…… Howry sets it up, Marshall “closes it”….

Additionally,  the Giants, with no postseason in sight are probably looking for the rest that is provided by the All Star break. Mentally, they will already be on vacation. They showed it all day today…until the ninth. Somehow, they remembered they were baseball players…much to the chagrin of Marmol.

In a normal scenario in the middle of a random series with no break pending, the Giants would get the nod. Lincecum is that good that he would win a 3-2 game by shutting down the Cubs hot bats. As for now….Cubs win 6-4….most of the runs coming off of the Giants bullpen. Lincecum will do his part….or in a strange scenario…try to do too much. But the Giants bullpen trying to hold a lead is like trying to hold jello on a hot summer day….its going to get sticky…and eventually it will melt.

The recap on this one will come late tomorrow. I hae no contributors yet, and I have Family commitments tomorrow afternoon. I’ll take notes and get the update posted later in the evening West Coast Time (PST).

 

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.  Interested  parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org“.


Giants v. Cubs Preview

July 11, 2008

Clearly there are two highlights this weekend. The first is Saturday’s debut of Rich Harden. Harden (5-1) will be taking on Correia (1-5).  On paper it is not even close to being a contest. Going to love to hear the ovation for Harden when he is announced.

The highlight however will be Sundays matchup between Lincecum and the unbeaten at home Ryan Dempster. A matchup of 10 game winners…two dominating pitchers (well at least at home for Demp). Should be fun to watch. This is the last game before the All Star Break.

Cubs.com has in depth analysis of the series that you can read by clicking here.