Prediction Skills

September 25, 2008

Back on July 18 we took a look at were things were for the Cubs and made our second half predictions for the rest of the season. At the time we thought the Cubs were a lock to win 100 games. We still have a shot…but we are thinking 98-99 at the moment. So with that said, here was what we predicted and the actual results up through last nights game at New York.

Original Story:

We looked at several percentages, including day games after night games, home / road splits, took into account the trade deadine (July 31) that will severly hamper Cincinatti (Dunn and/ or Griffey gone), Pittsburgh (Xaivier Nady). We also took into account the expansion of rosters on September 1 when Houston and Cincinnati will not be contending, and will be evaluating new talent (read as giving away games). It all makes for pretty dry reading. Just know we took it all into account…and here are the predictions

Philadelphia Phillies
Four Games @ Wrigley
Our Projections 2-2
Total Record v. Phillies After Projections: 2-2

New York Mets
Four Games @ Shea
Our Projections 1-3
Current Cubs Record v. Mets After Projections 2-1

Florida Marlins
Four @ Wrigley 2-2
Three @ Pro Player 2-1
Our Projections 4-3
Total Record v. Marlins After Projections: 4-3

Atlanta Braves
Three @ Turner
Our Projection 2-1
Total Record v. Braves After Projections: 3-0

Washington Nationals
Three  @ Wrigley
Our Projections 3-0
Total Record v. Nationals After Projections: 2-1

St. Louis Cardinals
Six @ Wrigley Current Record v. Cardinals After Projections: 2-1
Three @ Busch
Our Projections 6-3
Total Record v. Cards After Projections: 6-3

Milwaukee Brewers
Three @ Wrigley
Seven @ Miller Current Record v. Brewers After Projections: 4-0
Our Projections 5-5
Total Record v. Brewers After Projections: 6-1

Cincinnati Reds
Three @ Wrigley
Three @ Great American
Our Projections  5-1
Total Record v. Reds After Projections: 3-3

Pittsburgh Pirates
Three @ Wrigley Current Record v. Pirates After Projections: 2-1
Three @ PNC
Our Projections 5-1
Total Record v. Pirates After Projections: 5-1

Houston Astros
Six @ Wrigley…Current Record v. Astros After Projections: 2-1
Six @ Minute Made…Current Record v. Astros After Projections: 1-2
Our Projections 8-4
Total Record v. Astros After Projections: 5-6

Arizona Diamondbacks
Three @ Chase
Our Projections 2-1
Total Record v. Arizona After Projections: 1-2

Totals 43-24

Current Record 57-38 (on July 18)

Final Record 100-62
Current Record 96-61

Cubs Clinch Central on September 22
Cubs Clinched on September 20

All in all…pretty happy with the projections…where did we go wrong? Never saw the sweep coming at the hands of the Astros, and didnt think the Reds could win a series against us. Six game losing streak was offset by sweeps at Atlanta and Milwaukee.

In order to get 100 wins the Cubs need tonights win at NYM and a sweep at Milwaukee because it doesnt look like the third Astros game is going to be needed.

Fun looking back…..but really cant wait for the post season at this point.

Chat here below later tonight.


Down the Stretch

July 18, 2008

We looked at several percentages, including day games after night games, home / road splits, took into account the trade deadine (July 31) that will severly hamper Cincinatti (Dunn and/ or Griffey gone), Pittsburgh (Xaivier Nady). We also took into account the expansion of rosters on September 1 when Houston and Cincinnati will not be contending, and will be evaluating new talent (read as giving away games). It all makes for pretty dry reading. Just know we took it all into account…and here are the predictions

Philadelphia Phillies
Four Games @ Wrigley
Our Projections 2-2
Total Record v. Phillies After Projections: 2-2

New York Mets
Four Games @ Shea
Our Projections 1-3
(Cubs Regulars Resting)

Florida Marlins
Four @ Wrigley 2-2
Three @ Pro Player 2-1
Our Projections 4-3
Total Record v. Marlins After Projections: 4-3

Atlanta Braves
Three @ Turner
Our Projection 2-1
Total Record v. Braves After Projections: 3-0

Washington Nationals
Three  @ Wrigley
Our Projections 3-0
Total Record v. Braves After Projections: 2-1

St. Louis Cardinals
Six @ Wrigley Current Record v. Cardinals After Projections: 2-1
Three @ Busch
Our Projections 6-3
Total Record v. Cards After Projections: 2-1

Milwaukee Brewers
Three @ Wrigley
Seven @ Miller Current Record v. Brewers After Projections: 4-0
Our Projections 5-5
Total Record v. Brewers After Projections: 4-0

Cincinnati Reds
Three @ Wrigley
Three @ Great American
Our Projections  5-1
Total Record v. Reds After Projections: 4-0

Pittsburgh Pirates
Three @ Wrigley Current Record v. Pirates After Projections: 2-1
Three @ PNC
Our Projections 5-1
Total Record v. Pirates After Projections: 5-1

Houston Astros
Six @ Wrigley…Current Record v. Astros After Projections: 2-1
Six @ Minute Made…Current Record v. Astros After Projections: 1-2
Our Projections 8-4
Total Record v. Astros After Projections: 3-3

Arizona Diamondbacks
Three @ Chase
Our Projections 2-1
Total Record v. Arizona After Projections: 1-2

Totals 43-24

Current Record 57-38

Final Record 100-62

Cubs Clinch Central on September 22

19-10 Since Projections = 66%


MLB First Half Awards / Second Half Predictions

July 16, 2008

Open it up for Discussion. 100yi is handing out it’s first half awards and including second half predictions. As a bonus we will predict the finish of the regular season and playoff participants. We will save the actual “winner of the whole lot” for September.

First Half NL Awards

  • MVP – Chase Utley  – Really it is Berkman, but since the Astros are going nowhere we couldnt…could we/.
  • CY – Tim Lincecum  – Do I really need to explain myself?
  • ROY – Geovany Soto  – Not going to be a homer…Soto is a stud…you tell me who is better!
  • MOY – Tony La Russa  – Suprise of the NL…Is he really managing the THIRD best team in the NL

AL First Half Awards

  • MVP – Josh Hamilton – Could just as easily be Ian Kinsler
  • CY – Cliff Lee – First Half….probably wont last though.
  • ROY – Evan Longoria – Is anyone else even close?
  • MOY – Joe Maddon – The Rays….enough said

Will things change by the end of the year?

Final NL Awards

  • MVP – Albert Pujols  – No Clearcut candidates will emerge – so it will come down to VALUE as the cards will be in the hunt for the WC until the very end.
  • CY – Tim Lincecum 
  • ROY – Geovany Soto 
  • MOY – Lou Piniella – Getting the Cubs back to the Playoffs has been undoable in back to back years

Final AL Awards

  • MVP – Josh Hamilton –
  • CY – Mariano Rivera – Lee will come back down to earth /Lifetime acheivement award for Mo
  • ROY – Evan Longoria
  • MOY – Joe Girardi – All of the injuries and a big second half run will make NYY forget about Torre

Final NL Predictions

East – Philadelphia Phillies
Central – Chicago Cubs
West – Los Angeles Dodgers
Wild Card – Milwaukee Brewers

Final AL Predictions

East – Boston Red Sox
Central – Detroit Tigers (CWS Arent as Good as their Record)
West – Los Angeles Angels 
Wild Card – New York Yankees

Discuss…